Electric heavy-duty trucks enter the second-hand market

The number of new energy heavy-duty trucks has rapidly accumulated in the past three years, and the first batch of vehicles has completed the first leasing cycle and begun to re-enter circulation as second-hand cars. Unlike diesel trucks, the most valuable asset in the second-hand transaction of electric heavy-duty trucks is not the cab or axle, but an invisible battery. The remaining capacity and number of cycles of the battery directly determine how much money this car is worth and whether it can make money.

The inventory has reached a critical point

According to industry organizations, the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China has approached 80000 units in 2024, maintaining high-speed growth for several consecutive years. These vehicles are mainly concentrated in fixed line scenarios such as steel mills, ports, mines, short dumping of sand and gravel materials, and urban waste. Their operating radius is mostly between 50 and 200 kilometers, and they can be charged or recharged at power exchange stations. The routes and trips are relatively fixed, which is exactly the working condition where electric heavy-duty trucks are most easily accounted for.

The time point for the centralized deployment of vehicles is approximately from 2021 to 2022. Based on the first round of use cycle of power batteries of about five years, this batch of vehicles will gradually enter the replacement and retirement stage from 2025. At the same time, some leasing companies do not renew their leases after they expire, and vehicles are being pushed into the second-hand market in batches, leading to the emergence of a large-scale supply of goods.

The first variable of residual value is the battery

Power batteries usually account for about 40% of the total cost of electric heavy-duty trucks, so second-hand pricing is almost entirely based on batteries. The commonly used indicator in the industry is the health status of the battery, which is the ratio of the actual available capacity to the factory capacity. This ratio will show significant differentiation after three to five years of vehicle use: vehicles with proper maintenance and good charging habits may still be above 80%, while vehicles with long-term full charge and frequent fast charging may drop below 70%.

In addition to capacity, it also depends on the number of cycles and internal resistance. A battery with a cycle count close to its design lifespan, even if its current capacity is sufficient, has limited remaining usable time; An increase in internal resistance will result in increased heating, slower charging, and limited high-power output. For buyers, a battery with a capacity of 70% and more than half the number of cycles, and a battery with a capacity of 85% and less than 30% of the number of cycles, may have a value difference of hundreds of thousands of yuan, which cannot be seen from the appearance of the car.

The testing standards are still being supplemented

At present, there is no unified residual value assessment and battery testing standard for second-hand electric commercial vehicles. There are three common practices in the market: reading historical data recorded by the battery management system, including cumulative charge and discharge capacity, maximum and minimum cell voltage, and fault codes; Conduct a complete charge and discharge test to measure the available capacity; And use specialized equipment to measure internal resistance and monomer consistency. Each of the three methods has its limitations. BMS data may be tampered with or reset, charging and discharging tests are time-consuming and require high-power equipment, and internal resistance measurement depends on equipment accuracy.

Therefore, the buyer should request the seller to provide a traceable battery report before the transaction and try to retest it at a third-party testing agency. At the same time, it is necessary to confirm whether the original factory warranty can be transferred with the vehicle. Most manufacturers provide an eight year or certain mileage warranty for power batteries, but whether second-hand car owners can inherit this right depends on different terms and must be confirmed in writing before transfer. Otherwise, if the battery has a problem, the repair cost will be enough to swallow up the price difference of the entire car.

What scenarios are suitable for buying second-hand electric heavy-duty trucks

The first type is fixed short fall. From the steel plant to the material yard, from the port to the station, and from the mine to the crushing station, the one-way journey is several tens of kilometers, with fixed trips and vehicles charging immediately upon returning to the yard. Under these working conditions, the impact of battery attenuation is controllable, and the operating cost advantage is obvious. The second type is fleets with their own charging facilities. Charging stations, transformers, and sites are the biggest hidden costs of electric heavy-duty trucks. If buyers already have these conditions, the economy of second-hand cars will be greatly improved.

The unsuitable scenarios are equally clear. Cross provincial long-distance travel, unstable routes, lack of supplementary energy conditions at destinations, and extremely low winter temperatures are not suitable for using second-hand electric vehicles as the main force. In addition, vehicles with longer vehicle ages, battery brands that have been discontinued, or manufacturers withdrawing from the market carry risks in terms of accessories and aftermarket support, and caution should be exercised even if the price is low.

Additional variables for changing train types

There is an additional variable in second-hand transactions for battery swapping heavy-duty trucks. In the vehicle electric separation mode, the ownership of the battery may not belong to the car owner, but to the battery swapping operator. During the transaction, it is necessary to confirm whether the battery rental contract can be transferred, how to handle the deposit, and whether the original operator still has available sites locally. If the lease contract cannot be inherited, even if the vehicle is in good condition, it cannot operate normally. The pricing logic of this type of vehicle source is completely different from that of traditional whole vehicles. Both buyers and sellers should first clarify the contractual relationship before negotiating the vehicle price.

Checklist for buyers

When looking at a car, first check three items: first, the battery report, including current available capacity, number of cycles, and cell consistency; The second is the insulation and fault records of the high-voltage system of the entire vehicle, and whether the motor and electronic control have been repaired; The third is charging compatibility, whether the vehicle can adapt to the protocol and power of the buyer's existing charging station. Subsequently, the procedures will be confirmed, including the nature of the vehicle, whether it is mortgaged, the original factory warranty terms, and the local access and subsidy policies for new energy commercial vehicles.

When negotiating prices, it is recommended to convert the remaining battery life into the cost of using it for the next three to five years, rather than simply comparing the discount of the new car guide price. A car that is priced 100000 yuan cheaper but has only 60% of its battery capacity left is likely to require a significant replacement cost within two years, and overall it is not cost-effective. The opportunity for second-hand electric heavy-duty trucks is indeed emerging, but what it tests is not bargaining power, but the ability to judge batteries.